产出不确定条件下的生鲜农产品供应链定价与协调策略研究

This project takes the view of yield uncertain in the fresh agricultural products supply chain, and establishes the coordination joint decision model which is about the quantity of inputs, wholesale prices, and order quantities. Additionally, we study the optimal decision under cooperation and competition environment. Finally, we conclude the measures to improve the overall performance of fresh agricultural products supply chain. The project mainly from the following aspects: Firstly, this project briefly introduces the fresh agricultural products supply chain's concept and characteristics. And on this basis, we discuss the theories about inventory decision, pricing decision and enterprise alliances. Secondly, we consider the pricing and quantity decision of a two-echelon supply chain with one supplier and two retailers, and analyze the optimal decision of each member. We examine that strategic inventories have a crucial effect on the equilibrium solution, and study how to carry inventory reasonably to improve the performance of supply chain. Thirdly, consider supplier yield uncertainty basing on the previous chapter study. A commitment contract is introduced by the supplier to ensure that all retailers' order quantity is satisfied. If the supplier's actual output is less than the retailers' total order quantity, the supplier can buy sufficient products from other suppliers. The game model between the supplier and the retailers are constructed, and two different wholesale price decision modes are discussed. We compare the performance of the supply chain under each wholesale price decision modes, in order to reduce the output losses by seeking a better decision mode. Finally, we analyze each supply member's optimal decision with three different modes of cooperation and competition. And we also consider the unit purchase or production cost of supplier, or unit variable cost of retailer impacts on the equilibrium, and discuss how to set up the related parameters to improve the performance of the supply chain.

KEY WORDS: Supply Chain; Yield Uncertainty; Strategic Inventory; Pricing; Merger

供应链；产出不确定；战略库存；定价模式；联盟

本课题拟定针对生鲜农产品供应链中出现的产出不确定现象，建立相应的协调决策模型，研究供应链各成员在生鲜农产品投入量、批发价、订购量等方面的最优决策，以及考虑供应链成员合作与竞争环境下的最优决策，最终得出有利于改善生鲜农产品供应链整体绩效的措施。课题组首先分析介绍生鲜农产品供应链的概念及特点。并在此基础上，把握本课题所将涉及的库存决策理论、定价决策和企业联盟等相关理论知识。其次，构建由单个供应商和两个零售商组成的两阶段供应链竞争模型，分析各供应链成员的最优决策，以及战略库存的重要影响。着重探讨零售商如何凭借战略库存这一特有优势，来改善其自身盈利水平，以及探索实现供应链成员帕累托改进的措施。接着，在前面研究的基础上，考虑供应商产出不确定情形。供应商与零售商之间采用一种承诺契约，即供应商承诺满足零售商的采购需求。当供应商产出小于需求时，其会通过向外协商采购来补给未满足的需求量。基于这一承诺以及产出不确定这一现象，本课题比较分析两种不同批发价决策方式对供应链竞争均衡解的影响，以寻求较适合的定价方式，从而降低产出不确定所带来的损失。最后，在得出较适合的定价方式的基础上，比较分析三种不同的供应链成员间的合作与竞争模式下的最优决策，以及单位外购成本、单位生产成本，或单位可变成本对各竞争与合作模式下均衡解的影响，并探讨相关参数设置以改善供应链整体绩效。